In what the reason and paradox of the Unreal Interest rates? The disputable inflationary forecast. Constant Rouble

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In what the reason and paradox of the Unreal Interest rates? The disputable inflationary forecast. Constant Rouble

Excuse me for quality of machine translation

The Real Interest �ate (RIR) is a difference between by the Nominal Interest rate (NIR), officially levied by banks, and rate of Inflation (Inf). In the issue it is the sum, which creditor actually receives as Real Profit on the capital, given in the loans
A unreal IR this same Nominal IR. The Term "the Unreal IR" reflects essence, than more precisely "a Nominal IR". Knowing a Nominal IR at long-term crediting, it is impossible beforehand to calculate Real Profit or RIR, since any person in the world can not precisely predict a level of a Inf for many years forward. Knowing a NIR, it is possible precisely to calculate only Nominal Profit, which at a level the Inf an exceeding NIR turns to the Real Loss.

Paradox of a RIR and NIR

The definition (determination) of a IR is elementary tender between the investors and by the borrowers. In the beginning it is necessary to agree about the sizes of real profits or RIR at various terms of crediting. Further to agree upon a NIR, having made the amendment on a Inf. I.e. to agree the Disputable Inflationary Forecast (DIF). Upon a RIR to agree in many it is easier than time and faster, than about Nominal or Unreal IRs
Paradox that all negotiations begin with definition (determination) of a RIR, which in a nature not exists, because there are no stable financial gauges.

Constant Rouble

The stable financial gauge can become purely Russian CONDITIONAL UNIT OF ACCOUNT (CUA) - CONSTANT ROUBLE (CR). The name CUA - CR speaks about constant buying powers. The rate of a CR is measured in roubles and is changed according to rates Inflations (Inf). If the prices for some period will increase in 2 times, also rate of a CR will increase in 2 times. (Some analogy to a rate of dollar)
In a CR it is possible:
- to measure real change of a buying power of the invested capital, i.e. real arrived or losses
- to conclude the long-term contracts
- and it is necessary to fix the contributions, loans, IR and payments on them
The IR in a CR also is a RIR. Final payments are made in roubles at a current rate of a CR, which automatically takes into account inflationary changes.A CR is only CUA
The investors will receive real long-term profit, having placed the contributions till a RIR. The borrowers to pay on real interests. A RIR will be lower than Nominal IRs (NIR), since RIR are cleared of a Inf. At long-term crediting of Monthly Payments (MP) in a CR will be in times less rouble MPs

A Problem of the Disputable Inflationary Forecast (DIF). A CR - substitute zero inflation

A Rate of a CR - Index of the Prices - substitute (model, simulator) zero Inf. And at a zero Inf to the investors and it is many times easier to the borrowers and faster to agree, and most important, really to agree about the sizes of real profits, i.e. about a RIR with reference to various concrete, and especially to long-term, to terms of crediting, since the problem of a DIF disappears. At a RIR for preservation of a buying power of the contributions IR is equal to zero, at a NIR - level of a Inf. Thus, at a NIR there is an inevitable problem of a DIF.
Upon a RIR at long terms of crediting to agree many times more easy than about a NIR. We shall assume, the investors and borrowers under the mortgage have agreed upon a RIR - 5% annual for the period of 30 years. For a RIR on it all also comes to an end. Since the loans and contributions are automatically fixed in a CR. For definition (determination) of a NIR come it is necessary to make the basic difficulties, since the amendment on a Inf. A NIR for reception of the real profit - 5% Annually at 8,5% a State DIF will make 13,9% (1,05*1,1085 = 1,13925). Only investors consider this forecast underestimated, and the borrowers do not want 30 years to overpay, hoping, that the government will execute the promises on decrease (reduction) of a Inf. And Monthly Payments (MP) on such IRs are rather burdensome for the borrowers. Can be you know person, which will manage on many years forward are exact forecast a level of a Inf and to convince of the correctness of the investors and the borrowers? Personally I do not know.

IF IS SHORTER: Frequently there are situations, when the investors and borrowers have agreed upon a RIR and terms crediting - about main. Further can not agree upon a DIF - about minor, and the bargain is broken. Minor prevents main. The CR cleans (removes) minor.

tab. Monthly fixed (equal) payments in percentage of the sum of the loan or contribution Depending on Currency, Interest rates and Terms of Crediting
Cur Interests Terms of crediting (years / months)
1 2 3 5 10 20 30
CR year- month 12 24 36 60 120 240 360
CR 0 0 8,33 4,17 2,78 1,67 0,83 0,42 0,28
CR 3 0,25 8,47 4,3 2,91 1,8 0,97 0,55 0,42
CR 6 0,5 8,61 4,43 3,04 1,93 1,11 0,72 0,6
- 9 0,75 8,75 4,57 3,18 2,08 1,27 0,9 0,8
- 12 1 8,88 4,71 3,32 2,22 1,43 1,1 1,03
rbl 15 1,25 9,03 4,85 3,47 2,38 1,61 1,32 1,26
rbl 18 1,5 9,17 4,99 3,62 2,54 1,8 1,54 1,51
rbl 24 2 9,46 5,29 3,92 2,88 2,2 2,02 2
rbl 30 2,5 9,75 5,59 4,25 3,24 2,64 2,51 2,5

**tab. Monthly fixed (equal) payments in percentage of the sum of the loan or contribution Depending on Currency, Interest rates and Terms of Crediting**
Cur	Interests	Terms of crediting (years / months)
1	2	3	5	10	20	30
CR	year-	month	12	24	36	60	120	240	360
CR	0	0	8,33	4,17	2,78	1,67	0,83	0,42	0,28
CR	3	0,25	8,47	4,3	2,91	1,8	0,97	0,55	0,42
CR	6	0,5	8,61	4,43	3,04	1,93	1,11	0,72	0,6
-	9	0,75	8,75	4,57	3,18	2,08	1,27	0,9	0,8
-	12	1	8,88	4,71	3,32	2,22	1,43	1,1	1,03
rbl	15	1,25	9,03	4,85	3,47	2,38	1,61	1,32	1,26
rbl	18	1,5	9,17	4,99	3,62	2,54	1,8	1,54	1,51
rbl	24	2	9,46	5,29	3,92	2,88	2,2	2,02	2
rbl	30	2,5	9,75	5,59	4,25	3,24	2,64	2,51	2,5

RUSSIAN ANALOGUE (9 kb)

English pages. Main (7 kb)
Russian pages.Main (8 kb)
The brief contents of the placed themes (9 kb)
THEMES of CONSTANT ROUBLE
Constant Rouble - against dollar. A rate of a CR - Index of the Prices. The CR will ensure real preservation and the augmentation of a buying power of the savings, will make the credits by more accessible (15 kb)
Comparison acting and offered of tax systems. As To double a gross national income, having got rid from the Parasitic Inflationary Taxes. Tax reform (18 kb)
Important theme. Without tax reform will not be essential growth economy and standard of living, neither new housing accommodation, nor decision of housing problem.
The Parasitic Inflationary Taxes (PIT) "eat" enclosed in production the capitals: constant and turnaround, salary and pension. This theme is more important than the mortgage, since from anything is received anything.
An Example of a PIT for a Working capital (WC)
- Inf - 0 %: the Prices, the Cost Price (CP) and rate of a CR do not vary. The businessman Somebody on 100 Millions Roubles (mr) has acquired components. They were not necessary, and in one year he has reseiled them till a CP for the same 100 mrs. Profit or Added Cost (AC) - 0. The taxes - 0. Losses - PIT - 0. Is possible at necessities to acquire new components.
- Inf - 100 %:The Prices, CP and rate of a CR for one year are doubled. In the beginning of year 100 mCRs = 100 mrs. In one year 100 mCRs = 200 mrs. Somebody reseils furnishing on a new CP, since the prices were doubled, for 200 mrs, receives imaginary inflationary profit (or imaginary inflationary AC) - 100 mrs, pay the taxes (from the imaginary profit?!) - 50 % - 50 mrs. He still has 150 mrs or 75 mCRs, on which it is possible to acquire only 75% of components. Real losses - 25% real buying power of a WC. It also is a PIT for a WC.
The indicated example of a PIT is equal half of ifference between a new real CP and old, indicated in tax declarations. I.e. at a zero Inf of a PIT is not present in general, since. The CP does not vary. With growth of a Inf the burden of a PIT grows also.
The Losses from a PIT somebody will transfer on the salary of the hired workers. If he will cover the business, the workers and their families, in general, will stay without a piece of bread.
From the indicated examples it is visible, that at a zero Inf of a PIT is not present in general. With growth of a Inf the burden of a PIT grows also.
Tax reform
The essence of tax reform - legislative fixing in the tax declaration of the Cost Price in a CR, that will allow to get rid of a PIT and to make production favourable and fast growing. It:
- New jobs and decrease(reduction) of unemployment
- Essential growth of real wages and pensions
- Additional tax receipts at fast growing economy
- Decrease (reduction) of expenditures on public account on the unemployment benefits
- Etc.

The MORTGAGE
The Mortgage. An introduction theme. Account fixed and differential payments (12 kb)
Constant Rouble will make (without the subsidies) the mortgage by more accessible (14 kb)
Three formulas of account of fixed payments. What correct? (10 kb)
Conclusion of the formula of account of fixed payment (12 kb)
Optimum real estates: the size, term, interest, currency. (19 kb)
The mortgage begins with comparison of variants. Here 4 comparative tables with percentage by the rates - 0; 1;... 18; 19%/years and with terms of crediting - 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 27 and 30 years:
1 - Monthly Fixed Payments (MFP)
2 - Factors of Credit Status (FCS). With the help of a FCS it is possible to expect as the much as possible allowable sums real estates
3 - Sum of a MFP for all term of crediting
4 - Sum of percents (interests) for all term of crediting
On the present the mortgage will begin to work only then, when the overabundance will appear Again entered housing accommodation. Or. Hyperinflation, default and corruption - backs of the subsidiary mortgage (15 kb)